Examining the Nexus of Climate Change, Security, and Humanitarian Impact in the Asia-Pacific Region: Assessing Risks & Strategies

Zainab Tahir is a first-year student at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs pursuing her Master’s in International Affairs, with a concentration in Human Rights and Humanitarian Policy and specialization in International Conflict Resolution. She is fluent in Urdu and Hindi, and moderately proficient in French. Prior to SIPA, Zainab was the Assistant Program Director for the Jewish Foundation for Education of Women (JFEW) State University of New York (SUNY) Global Affairs Leadership Program. The Program promotes women leadership and women’s empowerment in global affairs.

In the summer of 2024, Zainab will be working with a research NGO in Pakistan focusing on the impacts of climate change on human mobility and migration in the region. After graduation, she hopes to work in Asia focusing on climate change and migration.

Abstract: The Asia Pacific region is one of the world regions most threatened by climate change - at risk due to rising sea levels and natural disasters. According to UNDP, in 2022, 32.6 million people were internally displaced due to weather-related hazards, with Asia Pacific accounting for 70%. These environmental challenges stand to impose far-reaching implications for peace and security in the region, as well as worsen ongoing humanitarian crises. This research paper aims to examine the crossroads between climate change, security dynamics, and humanitarian challenges in the Asia-Pacific region, looking specifically at how climate change exacerbates existing security threats - such as displacement, scarcity of natural resources, and geopolitical tensions. Furthermore, the paper will evaluate mitigation, adaptation, and resilience strategies implemented by various stakeholders - from national and local governments to civil society. Through the use of case studies, a review of scientific literature on the specific impacts of climate change in the region, and policy documents, the goal of the paper is ultimately to foster a deeper understanding of the adverse impacts of climate change on security and humanitarian needs in the Asia Pacific.

Introduction

As global warming gives rise to unpredictable weather patterns and severe environmental impacts, the scope of climate change challenges extends from ecological consequences to threats against geopolitical stability. The Asia Pacific region is one of the world's most threatened by climate change and is at risk due to rising sea levels and natural disasters. The region spans a vast expanse of area with rich geographical diversity covering a range of climate zones - from the peaks of the Himalayas to tropical islands in the Pacific. This diversity also means it experiences a spectrum of natural disasters with devastating impacts. The International Disaster Database research shows that individuals living in the region are six times more likely to experience disasters than those living elsewhere.[1] According to UNDP, in 2022, 32.6 million people were internally displaced due to weather-related hazards, with Asia Pacific accounting for 70%.[2] These environmental challenges stand to impose far-reaching implications for peace and security in the region, as well as worsen ongoing humanitarian crises. This research paper aims to examine the crossroads between climate change, security dynamics, and humanitarian challenges in the Asia-Pacific region, arguing that climate change exacerbates existing security and humanitarian challenges in the region, leading to increased displacement, resource scarcity, and geopolitical tensions. It further evaluates current mitigation, adaptation, and resilience strategies implemented by various stakeholders - from national and local governments to civil society - and their effectiveness in highlighting the necessity of enhanced regional cooperation and innovative policies. Through the use of case studies, a review of scientific literature on the specific impacts of climate change in the region, and policy documents, the goal of the paper is ultimately to foster a deeper understanding of the adverse impacts of climate change on security and humanitarian needs in the Asia Pacific.

Section I - Contextual Background

The geographical diversity of the Asia Pacific region presents a remarkably varied profile, from the tundras to the tropics. This diversity incurs a wide array of weather patterns, including monsoon rains in South and Southeast Asia and tropical cyclones in the Pacific. The region is particularly vulnerable to changes in climate due to its dependence on environmentally related sectors, such as agriculture and fisheries. The World Meteorological Organization's State of the Climate in Asia report indicates that the region is the world's most prone to disasters, evidenced by an increased frequency of droughts and floods.[3] We can refer to recent events, such as the wildfires in Australia and heavy monsoon rainfall in Bangladesh, to illustrate the presence of this phenomenon. The region is also warming at a much higher rate than the global average, and rising sea levels threaten further disruption in the future. Island nations like the Maldives and Tuvalu are grappling with the stark reality of losing their land due to imminent submersion.[4] Melting glaciers in the Himalayas also threaten the availability of freshwater supplies for millions of people who depend on glacier-fed rivers.[5] Both of these examples illuminate the foreseeable impact on resource abundance. These disturbances to industries and land affect more than just resources. More than 60% of the labor force in Asia-Pacific is employed in an industry highly susceptible to climate change. As a result, climate disasters, as a percentage of GDP, significantly impact the region's economy more than global trends.[6] Recent data also examined the impacts of rising heat levels and exposure on outdoor labor productivity. The study estimates an average of 228 billion hours of labor has been lost yearly due to heat exposure over the past two decades (2001-2020). The study also finds countries with larger populations in South and East Asia experience the most hours lost. India, China, Pakistan, and Indonesia are positioned to incur the "largest population-weighted labor losses and associated economic productivity impacts" with continued warming.[7] The data is concerning, as the Asia Pacific region is a significant contributor to both the global economy and political stability - host to busy trade routes and military bases. Therefore, climate change and its associated impacts in the region stand to undermine global geopolitical stability.

Section II - Climate Change and Security Dynamics

As we consider the vulnerability of the Asia-Pacific region to changing climate patterns, it is necessary to recognize the threats to national security that come with the degradation of living conditions. The security threat manifests through different avenues. Low-lying Pacific islands are confronted with the threat of rising sea levels, rendering significant portions of the land uninhabitable. This environmental instability increases the risk of statelessness and mass movements of people. Changes to the landscape heighten the scarcity of resources - significantly fresh water and arable land. Looking at the example of the Mekong Delta in Vietnam, the region faces reductions in usable land for rice production due to climate change.[8] These impacts include the salinization of water and soil, increased floods and droughts, and riverbank erosion. Rising sea levels push saltwater further inland, contaminating the freshwater supply and reducing the soil's ability to grow crops effectively. This is then compounded by prolonged droughts, which further reduce the availability of freshwater, or heavy rainfall, causing flooding, which destroys the crops and makes a vast expanse of land unavailable for agricultural use.[9] Dwindling resources intensifies competition, heightening the risk of domestic and cross-border conflicts. Beyond conflicts contained in one area, climate change also acts as a catalyst for regional tensions, most notably through maritime disputes. We can use the example of the Brahmaputra River to understand this. The Brahmaputra River flows through Tibet, Northeastern India, and Bangladesh. The river is significant for agriculture and drinking water and is a source of hydroelectric power in India and Bangladesh. When climate change impacts water scarcity and alters hydrological cycles, upstream activities such as the construction of dams by China impact water availability downstream. Given that upstream control of the river is under China, there is the possibility of tensions with India and Bangladesh, who rely on the water supply for domestic purposes. One significant instance marking this tension occurred in 2017 during the monsoon season, when China failed to share hydrological data with India - an ongoing practice aiding the latter in flood management. This refusal came during the Doklam standoff, a separate military encounter in a disputed area.[10]While withholding the data was in response to a different dispute, it showcases how one country can take advantage of its tactical position and use it as leverage in broader geopolitical conflicts. Infrastructure development and attempts to control resource-rich areas in a time of scarcity can lead to militarization, complicating relations and laying the foundation for further hostility. In incorporating the climate and security narrative to assess climate risks overall, we develop a broader understanding and perspective of climate change's long-term and real impact. It allows us to move beyond the traditional knowledge of climate change, which focuses on the environmental impact. In "Reimagining the Human-Environment Relationship: Why Climate Change Matters for Human Security" by Janani Vivekananda, the author discusses the nexus between climate change and security through five pathways: availability of natural resources, food insecurity and costs, livelihood security, and crime, displacement, and migration, and social unrest.[11] It is essential to consider how these factors interact and how, beyond the immediate impact of climate change, there is a risk of exacerbating existing tensions and conflicts or even fueling new crises.

Section III - Humanitarian Challenges

Security and humanitarian challenges are inextricably linked. Whether through the direct effects of climate change or as a result of conflict, the impact is felt most by vulnerable populations who are left to deal with the ramifications. Indigenous groups, in particular, face the most significant threat due to their dependency on natural resources to sustain their livelihoods, as well as limited access to technology. Throughout the Asia Pacific region, the resilience of Indigenous communities and their ability to adapt is being tested by the worsening of food and water insecurity, the emergence of water-borne diseases, and the prevalence of pests. In the Sundarbans, the world's largest mangrove forest between Bangladesh and India, a rise in sea levels and salinity not only degraded the ecosystem but has severely impacted the ability of the local population to sustain their traditional agricultural and fishing practices.[12] At the current rate of rising sea levels, smaller Pacific island states like Kiribati and the Maldives could be mostly or entirely submerged by 2100. With populations of around 117,000 and 500,000 people, there would need to be a well-managed crisis response strategy to relocate entire populations without straining geopolitical tensions.[13] Generally, it is considered that most countries in the Asia Pacific region will face severe flooding, including cities in Southeast Asia such as Jakarta, Ho Chi Minh City, Bangkok, and others.[14] This will lead to internally displaced populations, and if not handled effectively, there is a severe threat of internal political instability. Human mobility is only one humanitarian challenge exacerbated by climate change. The degradation of the environment impacts agricultural output, and the reduction of labor productivity strains socioeconomic systems - leading to increased levels of poverty and hunger.[15] Less developed countries that lack sufficient infrastructure will incur the highest costs. In 2022, severe flash floods in Bangladesh led to a loss of lives and livelihoods, burdening an already weak domestic system. After the floods, many people were left displaced without access to essential services such as healthcare, food, and shelter.[16] As the frequency of natural disasters, such as typhoons, floods, and droughts, continues to rise in the region, the eminent issue in the humanitarian space is the ability to respond effectively.

It is notable that, generally, there is no precise definition and comprehensive legal framework that addresses the specific needs of persons displaced by climate-related disasters. While international human rights law and bodies such as the Refugee Convention provide some instruments, they are inadequate in addressing the specific needs of climate migrants and fall short in recognizing those displaced due to climate as "migrants" or "refugees," limiting the protection and rights offered. This legal gap is positioned to impede an efficient approach to climate change impacts on human rights. In the case study of Teitiota v. New Zealand, Mr. Teitiota, a national of Kiribati, relocated to New Zealand due to environmental degradation and subsequent violence. Upon facing deportation, he made his case to the UN Human Rights Committee (HRC) and invoked Article 6 of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR), which outlines the right to life for every human being and the protection of this right under the law. While the HRC did not acknowledge the protection claim, they did state that climate change-related displacement may fall under the purview of the non-refoulement principle for states, which is binding in international human rights law. Due to the impact of climate change, the conditions and quality of life in a country may be incompatible with "the right to life with dignity."[17] This example highlights the overlap and the gaps between normative and policy agreements on climate change.

On the one hand, with the growing threat of climate change and resulting increased levels of displacement, there is a normative consensus that this needs to be addressed, highlighted by the HRC's ruling. That said, existing legal and policy frameworks still fail to encompass the extent of protection and resources needed to address this human rights issue. In future discussions, a humanitarian-centered approach will be critical in climate change and geopolitical matters.

Section IV - Strategies for Mitigation, Adaptation, and Resilience

We can look at the metrics used to assess areas of concern to understand the policy response. The regional riskscape uses a quantitative, multi-risk analysis approach, accounting for intensive, extensive, slow-onset, and rapid-onset disaster types.[18] In the Asia Pacific region, the regional riskscape is defined not only by climate, water, and weather but also by socioeconomic factors, including population growth, poverty, and rapid urbanization. Climate change is, therefore, also affected by human activity. The region contributes to over 55% of global greenhouse gas emissions, with many emissions stemming from land-use change, including deforestation. That said, 40 Asia-Pacific countries have pledged carbon neutrality by 2050, 2060, or 2070.[19] Across the region, governments have begun developing and implementing strategies to mitigate climate change impacts and enhance resilience. Countries such as Japan, for example, have invested significantly in strengthening infrastructure for flood defense and earthquake-resistant buildings.[20] Australia has also developed policies to reduce carbon emissions and invest in renewable energy projects.[21] Regional cooperation has proven critical in addressing the effects of climate change for the region. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has collaborated on frameworks such as the ASEAN Action Plan on Joint Response to Climate Change to encourage participating member states to share technology and resources to improve regional resilience.[22] Multilateral partnerships between countries such as the Asia Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate (including China, India, South Korea, and others) serve to foster cooperative efforts to implement clean technology.[23] Grassroots efforts on the ground also prove instrumental in this effort, such as in the Philippines, where mobile technology improved disaster response capabilities through enhancing communication and enacting early warning systems.[24] This is only a snapshot of some initiatives that are being implemented. However, some issues need to be addressed, including the effect of resource limitations and political instability in maximizing policies.

Section V - Review of Scientific Literature and Policy Documents

When considering the security and humanitarian risks imposed by climate change, it is critical to review existing research and literature by scientists who observe the impacts of climate change on the region and analyze future impacts. Research synthesized in a collection of fifteen articles in Environmental Research highlights the plethora of challenges facing the area, from expected increases in precipitation levels in South Asia to water security and land-use changes in Southeast Asia. These studies forecast increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, which will compound existing vulnerabilities and further add to the security and humanitarian dilemmas. They also highlight action areas, focusing on biodiversity, the water-food-energy nexus, sustainable waste management, and climate education.[25] Conversely, policy documents show a varied response to combating climate change in the region. The ASEAN Agreement on Disaster Management and Emergency Response (AADMER) is one example of a regional agreement looking to enhance cooperation amongst member states in responding to climate change.[26] There are also national strategies, including the Fiji National Climate Change Policy, which has a more specific scope and looks at addressing the needs of Pacific Island countries. This document focuses more on strengthening coastal and marine resources and is geared toward expanding education initiatives.[27] We can identify a critical gap if we look at the overall literature from both the scientific community and policy frameworks. While the scientific literature presents a bleak outlook of climate change prospects, policy responses lack the urgency to mitigate the risks effectively. We can conclude from this analysis that while there is a general awareness and perception of climate change impacts, there needs to be a more robust policy response that can address the complicated intersection of various interacting factors.

Conclusion

In conclusion, this paper examined the crossroads between climate change, security dynamics, and humanitarian challenges in the Asia-Pacific region, looking specifically at the role climate change plays in exacerbating existing security threats and human rights dilemmas. Some of the areas identified include human mobility, political disputes, resource and land loss, economic impact, and labor shortages. Looking at the scientific literature and policy documents, we can see that climate change is not merely limited to the environment - but is a multifaceted issue that profoundly impacts society and threatens regional stability and peace. As sea levels continue to rise, natural disasters increase in frequency, and millions of people are displaced with no access to necessities, the need for more robust implementation of policy strategies is urgent. While countries like Japan and Australia are advancing infrastructure, less developed countries struggle due to resource constraints and political issues. Moreover, regional cooperation is promising - but enhanced collaboration is necessary to sustain these efforts, and the legal gaps in these frameworks are also a matter of concern. Nonetheless, while these challenges seem daunting, there is a vast potential for cooperative solutions to build towards a more sustainable, peaceful, and resilient future.

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ENDNOTES

[1]  United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UNESCAP), "Asia-Pacific Riskscape: How Do Changes in Weather, Climate, and Water Impact Our Lives?" accessed [April 22, 2024], https://www.unescap.org/blog/asia-pacific-riskscape-how-do-changes-weather-climate-and-water-impact-our-lives.

[2]  United Nations Development Programme, "Asia-Pacific Climate Change Poses Existential Threat: Extreme Weather Worsening Poverty and Risks to Public Health, Says UNDP Report," accessed [April 22, 2024], https://www.undp.org/asia-pacific/news/asia-pacific-climate-change-poses-existential-threat-extreme-weather-worsening-poverty-and-risks-public-health-says-undp-report.

[3]  World Meteorological Organization, "State of Climate in Asia 2022," accessed [April 22, 2024], https://public.wmo.int/en/resources/library/state-of-climate-in-asia-2022.

[4] East Asia Forum, "Climate Change Challenges Asia-Pacific Security," January 7, 2023, https://eastasiaforum.org/2023/01/07/climate-change-challenges-asia-pacific-security/.

[5] Somini Sengupta, "What Happens When the Glaciers Disappear?" *Yale Environment 360*, February 5, 2019, https://e360.yale.edu/features/himalayas-glaciers-climate-change

[6]  UNESCAP, Asia-Pacific Riskscape.

[7]  Qiang He et al., "Effects of Climate Change on the Regional Climate: Model Evaluation and Projections," *Nature Communications* 12, no. 6849 (2021), https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-27328-y.pdf.

[8]  Mekong River Commission, "Climate Change," accessed April 22, 2024, https://www.mrcmekong.org/our-work/topics/climate-change/.

[9] Mekong River Commission, "Climate Change."

[10] Center for Naval Analyses (CNA), "Brahmaputra Study," 2016, https://www.cna.org/archive/CNA_Files/pdf/cna-brahmaputra-study-2016.pdf.

[11] Janani Vivekananda, *Reimagining the Human-Environment Relationship: Why Climate Change Matters for Human Security* (United Nations University, 2020), https://collections.unu.edu/eserv/UNU:8836/UNUUNEP_Vivekananda_RHER.pdf.

[12]  Mahadevia Kanksha Ghimire and Mayank Vikas, "Climate Change – Impact on the Sundarbans, a Case Study," *International Scientific Journal: Environmental Science* 2, no. 1 (2012): 7-15, https://ssrn.com/abstract=3389022.

[13] East Asia Forum, "Climate Change Challenges."

[14] East Asia Forum, "Climate Change Challenges."

[15]  Asian Development Bank, "Climate Change, Poverty, and Hunger in the Asia-Pacific and the Sustainable Development Goals," accessed April 22, 2024, https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/948751/climate-change-poverty-hunger-asia-pacific-sdgs.pdf.

[16] Human Rights Watch, "Bangladesh: Protect People Most at Risk During Monsoon Season," June 19, 2023, https://www.hrw.org/news/2023/06/19/bangladesh-protect-people-most-risk-during-monsoon-season.

[17]  United Nations Human Rights Committee, *Decision in case of Ioane Teitiota v New Zealand* (2019), CCPR/C/127/D/2728/2016.

[18] UNESCAP, "Asia-Pacific Riskscape."

[19] UNESCAP, "Asia-Pacific Riskscape."

[20] Japan, "First Nationally Determined Contribution (Updated Submission)," United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, June 2022, https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/NDC/2022-06/JAPAN_FIRST%20NDC%20%28UPDATED%20SUBMISSION%29.pdf.

[21]  Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water, Australia, "Australia's Long-Term Emissions Reduction Plan," accessed April 22, 2024, https://www.dcceew.gov.au/climate-change/publications/australias-long-term-emissions-reduction-plan.

[22] ASEAN Centre for Biodiversity, "Policy Brief on Climate Change in ASEAN," March 2020, https://asean.chm-cbd.net/sites/acb/files/2020-03/Policy%20Brief_Climate_FINAL.pdf.

[23]  International Energy Agency, "Asia-Pacific Partnership for Clean Development and Climate," accessed April 22, 2024, https://www.iea.org/policies/4319-asia-pacific-partnership-for-clean-development-and-climate.

[24]  Pacific Disaster Center, "Philippines Project on Social Media," accessed April 22, 2024, https://www.pdc.org/philippines-project-social-media/.

[25]  Environmental Research*, "Special Issue on Climate Change and Environmental Sustainability," accessed April 22, 2024, https://www.sciencedirect.com/journal/environmental-research/special-issue/10KXCRMVJ96.

[26]  ASEAN, "ASEAN Agreement on Disaster Management and Emergency Response (AADMER) Work Programme 2021-2025," accessed April 22, 2024, https://asean.org/book/asean-agreement-on-disaster-management-and-emergency-response-aadmer-work-programme-2021-2025/.

[27] Government of Fiji, "Fiji National Climate Change Policy," 2022, https://fijiclimatechangeportal.gov.fj/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Brief__Fiji_National_Climate_Change_Policy.pdf.